Description: This paper uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore retirement cost projection variability. The analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part a subjective population projection model is developed, based on a beta-binomial distribution for the number of participants persisting through a given age. Probability statements regarding such items as the number of participants at a given age and the distribution of retirees are developed. The second part shows how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for retirement cost projections. Both the single-entry-age case and the multiple-entry-age case are considered. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1979, Vol. 31.

Description: This paper demonstrates how, under the projected benefit cost methods whereby the gains are reflected in the normal cost rate, gains determined at a given valuation date are amortized over the future working lifetime of the active employees included in the valuation as of that date.

Description: This paper examines tandem levels of salary and interest rates and finds that the absolute level of each assumption as well as the differential are significant cost determinants for defined benefit pension plans. In forming best-estimate salary and interest rate assumptions, the actuary must reconcile the difference, if any, between the currently observed rates and the valuation assumptions. Common practice is to choose expected long-term rather than observed rates for valuation purposes. The error in this procedure is analyzed and found to be tolerable for strictly temporary discrepancies between observed rates and valuation assumptions. For situations where these discrepancies are expected to persist for some time, a need is shown for nonuniform, calendar-year assumptions or their equivalent in order to develop best-estimate assumptions. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: This paper studies the variability of pension costs and fund levels under various funding methods. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, Vol. 1.

Description: These notes are a follow-up to the paper 'Introduction to the Dynamics of Pension Funding' by the same authors and published in Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1976, Vol. 28. The purpose of that paper was to provide an introduction to mathematical principles applicable to pension funding under dynamic conditions of population growth, inflation, and automatic adjustment of benefits. The first note discusses a general contribution formula and a number of special cases and modifications. The second note concerns aggregate cost funding when the actuary uses assumptions about cost factors which differ consistently from cost experience. The final note concerns the variation of the annuity unit under a variable annuity program patterned after the plan employed by the College Retirement Equities Fund [CREF]. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1981, Vol. 1.

Description: A new approach to computing annual pension costs, based on an open-group projection of the participant population for a number of years, was described in detail in a paper published in the 1975 Transactions, entitled 'The Forecast Valuation Method for Pension Plans.' That paper described the operation of such a cost method at the initial valuation date. This paper discusses several alternative approaches to projection valuation methods and also describes how costs should be computed at valuation dates after the first one. In addition, the author illustrates projected contributions and asset buildups under both traditional [closed-group] cost methods and projected [open-group] cost methods, for a number of years under a variety of assumptions as to the growth rate of the participant group. Projection valuation methods have not been described heretofore in sufficient detail to make it possible for actuaries to use them on a recurring basis or for the Internal Revenue Service to make a determination as to the acceptability of such approaches for computing tax-deductible pension plan contributions. It is the hope of the author that this paper will fill both of those gaps. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1977, Vol. 29.

Description: This research report discusses the effect a variation in the interest rate assumption has on a defined benefit plan's costs. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1967, Vol. 19, No. 55.

Description: This paper examines some of the methods used to determine the value of the assets held by a pension fund and used in actuarial valuations to determine the required contributions for a pension plan. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1968, Vol. 20, Pt. 1, No. 58.

Description: The projection methods used by the Social Security Administration's Office of the Chief Actuary are important. The resulting projections are cited regularly by policy-makers, academics and others interested in the long-term financial solvency of the OASDI system. However, a complete description of this projection methodology that is vital for serious policy discussions is not available to the general public. This summary was constructed in connection with the Social Security Advisory Board's 1999 Technical Panel on Methods and Assumptions. A goal of the Methods and Modeling working group of the Technical Panel was to 'work to ensure that the projection methods used by the Office of the Chief Actuary become more public.' From Actuarial Research Clearing House 2000, Vol. 1.

Description: In this paper, a general model for a pension plan involving growth with respect to the population, salaries, and retirement benefits is used to study contribution patterns that may arise under different actuarial cost methods. Detailed results are presented for the case where the growth of population and the growth of salaries are described by exponential functions. Economic implications are presented and discussed. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1979, Vol. 31.